G20 summit agrees on deficit cuts by 2013

Leaders at the G20 summit in Canada have agreed to cut national budget deficits without stunting economic growth.

Summit host Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the group's richest members should halve their deficits within three years.

Correspondents note that every major G20 country had already committed to that target before the summit.

Proposals for a global levy on banks have been dropped, Mr Harper said.

Instead, that will be left to individual countries.

Mr Harper also said government debt, as a proportion of the economy, "should be at least stabilised or on a downward trend by 2016".

He added: "All leaders recognise that fiscal consolidation is not an end in itself. There will be a continued role for ongoing stimulus in the short term as we develop the framework for strong sustainable and balanced growth".

Growth worries

On banking, the G20 also committed to agree on new minimum levels of capital for banks in time for the next summit in Seoul in November.

Precise figures will not be reached until then, says the BBC's economics editor Stephanie Flanders.

The idea is that banks will be required to hold enough in reserve to prevent the need for government support as was needed in the financial crisis of 2007-09.

The group of 20 leading and emerging nations had been split over the pace of budget cuts.

US President Barack Obama warned against fast and deep budget cuts, fearing damage to global growth.

But European members, including the UK, France, and Germany, have already led moves to slash record public deficits, despite opposition from the United States which is saddled with a $1.3tn debt.

Emerging economies such as Argentina and Brazil had worried that budget cuts in rich countries would hurt their export-dependent economies.

"If the cuts take place in advanced countries it is worse," said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega.

"Because instead of stimulating growth they pay more attention to fiscal adjustments, and if they are exporters they will be reforming at our cost".

Outside the summit venue in downtown Toronto, police and protesters clashed for a second day on Sunday.

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported that police fired rubber bullets at one point to disperse a crowd of about 150 protesters.

On the margins of a major march through Toronto on Saturday, some black-clad and hooded protesters smashed shop windows and set alight at least two police cars.

Police arrested more than 500 people over the weekend.

Menopause test could close the baby gap

Study finds way to 'time' women's biological clock, the predictions, from age 20, are accurate to four months

Women who want a career and a family can hardly fail to be aware these days of the biological clock ticking. What they don't know is whether their own clock is fast or slow — and how long they can safely leave it if they want a child.

But now scientists hold out hope of a simple blood test they say can predict the date of a woman's menopause, to within four months. If their work can be confirmed by larger studies, women will be able to have a much clearer idea of how long they are likely to remain fertile.

The test measures the concentrations of a hormone that is produced by cells in the ovaries. Iranian scientists who present their work to the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology in Rome tomorrow, say that the hormone level can help to predict when a woman as young as 20 will reach the menopause.

During the study, 63 women reached menopause, and on average they found the test had been accurate to within four months. The biggest margin of error was three to four years.

On average women reach the menopause around the age of 52. A test would enable them to plan their families, taking into account that their natural fertility would be in steep decline around 10 years before menopause. Those who want to delay having children could be reassured.

But the test would be most useful for the small proportion of women who go through an early menopause — around 1% under the age of 40 and 5% to 10% under the age of 45. While many may expect it, because often it has happened to their mother or aunt before them, some are taken by surprise.

"The results from our study could enable us to make a more realistic assessment of women's reproductive status many years before they reach menopause," said Dr Fahimeh Ramezani Tehrani, who is president of the reproductive endocrinology department of the Endocrine Research Centre and a faculty member and associate professor of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran.

Tehrani's team accept that their study was small and will need to be replicated on a larger scale before any test could be widely introduced.

The blood test detects levels of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), which controls the development of follicles in the ovaries, from which oocytes (eggs) develop.

The researchers took blood samples from 266 women, aged 20 to 49. They measured the women's concentrations of AMH and collected two further blood samples at three-yearly intervals.

They also collected information on the women's socioeconomic background and reproductive history, and examined them every three years. Based on the AMH concentrations, they estimated when menopause was likely to occur for women at different ages and different stages of their reproductive lives.

Higher levels of the hormone predicted later menopause than low levels.

"If a 20-year-old woman has a concentration of serum AMH of 2.8 ng/ml [nanograms per millilitre], we estimate that she will become menopausal between 35 and 38 years old," said Tehrani.

"To the best of our knowledge, this is the first prediction of age at menopause that has resulted from a population-based cohort study. We believe that our estimates of ages at menopause based on AMH levels are of sufficient validity to guide medical practitioners in their day-to-day practice, so that they can help women with their family planning.

"Our findings indicate that AMH is capable of specifying a woman's reproductive status more realistically than chronological age per se".

He added: "Larger studies, starting with women in their 20s and following them for several years are needed to validate the accuracy of serum AMH concentration for the prediction of menopause in young women".

Nick Macklon, professor of obstetrics and gynaecology at Southampton University, said other work on measuring AMH suggested it may offer the best prospect for devising a test to measure how long a woman will remain fertile.

"It can give us a reasonable idea of when the menopause may happen, but more importantly when women's fertility may fall and they can't have a spontaneous conception," he said.

"What is lacking are the prospective long-term studies which correlate the predicted time on menopause with the actual time of menopause".

Stuart Lavery, director of in-vitro fertilisation at Hammersmith hospital, London, and a spokesman for the British Fertility Society, said: "One issue of concern is if people become too reassured about this. They might think that if their AMH at age 25 is 'X' they don't need to be too concerned. But there can be other factors.

"It's going to be important how this test is perceived, so people don't think all they have to do is pop in and get insurance against their biological clock ticking".

Dr Dagan Wells, of Oxford University, said: "Remember fertility can be dramatically reduced in the years leading up to the menopause, for five years or more.

"Where this test might be particularly useful, even if it's not super-accurate, could be where women are unaware they might experience a very premature menopause. It could give them a heads-up".

Argentina into quarter-finals, Germany await

Argentina ended the first half with a not so deserved reward as Maradona's boys neither showed their best nor what they had shown on previous stage group games. Carlos Tévez broke the tie on minute 26 after Messi played in for the Man City man, who was denied one-on-one by the goalie as the the ball broke back to Messi who keept his cool and lifted the ball towards Tévez who was allowed to head the ball in despite being in an offside position.

Six minutes later, Gonzalo Higuaín netted to establish the 2-0 lead. It only took six minutes in the second half for Tévez to blast a long distance drop-bomb to set things 3-0.

The Argentine team defeated Mexico 3-1 and reached the quarter finals in the World Cup 2010 in South Africa. They will play Germany next.

Carlos Tévez scored two goals and Gonzalo Higuaín scored one, but the Argentine team's forward became the top scorer in this World Cup with his fourth goal so far.

After Mexico's game, Argentina has ten goals in their favour and just two against.

Two of the most attractive teams of the tournament faced off in the day's second knockout game, with Diego Maradona's men putting out their fellow Latin Americans for a second consecutive World Cup.

Argentina were one of only two nations to qualify from the group stages with a perfect record (Holland were the other), but while any errors were previously correctable, the gauntlet of knockout football means that Maradona's side could not allow their concentration to waver even for a second.

A 1-0 victory over Nigeria in their opener kicked the Argentines off before a strong victory over South Korea in their second game booked a place in the last 16. Top spot in Group B was secured as a team of fringe players defeated Greece 2-0 in their final pool game.

Despite qualifying with no way near the same comfort as the Argentines, the Mexican team certainly had enough firepower to worry Maradona's boys. With players such as Cuauhtemoc Blanco, Giovanni dos Santos and Carlos Vela providing pace, power and skill up front, Mexico had enough ability to test an Argentine defence which had so far appeared the flimsy heel of an immensely talented Achilles. For this reason it is the defence rather than the stellar attacking of the Argentine side which will come to the fore, for the first time this World Cup.

During last football practice, Maradona was not sure about Walter Samuel who had well recovered from a thigh injury but looked pretty doubtful on the training pitch. Thus, the coach played AS Roma centre full-back Nicolás Burdisso.

Moreover, the confident Argentina squad didn't need long memories to revisit their previous World Cup encounter with Mexico. Four years ago in Leipzig, Argentina defeated the North Americans 2-1 after extra-time, with a stunning strike from Maxi Rodríguez, who played right mid-fielder instead of Juan Sebastián Verón.

Mexico coach Javier Aguirre cut a morose figure ahead of the last 16 World Cup clash with Argentina on Sunday, hitting out at "analysts" who say his team had no chance.

"I have no message for those that do not like me," he said inside Soccer City, wearing a peaked cap to cover his eyes and barely lifting his gaze to acknowledge the media room.

"I think what they have been writing lately in Mexico is not justified. We're working to change the course of history," he added in reference to Mexico's poor record at the World Cup.

The Latin Americans possess fervent support and have always had talented players but have only twice reached the quarter-finals, in 1970 and 1986 when they were hosts.

Faced with a red-hot Argentina, Aguirre's men are again likely to fall at their traditional stumbling block, the first knockout round where they have exited at the past four tournaments.

"Mexico are nobodies' favorite. We're way down in the betting," he mumbled.

"Analysts say we're dead and gone".

The only smile Aguirre afforded was when he was asked about Argentina coach Diego Maradona, whom the former Mexico international and Atletico Madrid coach knows well.

"He's a great friend. We used to see each other in Madrid and I will give him a big hug and congratulate him for what he has done so far at this World Cup".

Maradona famously led his country to World Cup glory in 1986 as captain, in contrast to Aguirre who was sent off in the quarter-final against West Germany.

Lineups:

Argentina: Romero; Otamendi, Burdisso, Demichelis, Heinze; M. Rodríguez, Mascherano, Di Maria; Messi; Tevez, Higuaín.

Mexico: Pérez; Osorio, Rodríguez, Moreno, Salcido; Juárez, Márquez, Torrado; G. Dos Santos, Blanco, Barrera.

Factbox:

Previous meetings:

19.07.30 Montevideo Argentina 6 Mexico 3

13.03.56 Mexico Mexico 0 Argentina 0

10.03.60 San Jose Mexico 2 Argentina 3

17.03.60 San Jose Mexico 0 Argentina 2

28.03.62 Buenos Aires Argentina 1 Mexico 0

22.08.67 Mexico City Mexico 2 Argentina 1

06.02.73 Mexico Mexico 2 Argentina 0

18.09.84 Monterrey Mexico 1 Argentina 1

25.10.84 Buenos Aires Argentina 1 Mexico 1

14.11.85 Los Angeles Mexico 1 Argentina 1

17.11.85 Puebla Mexico 1 Argentina 1

17.01.90 Los Angeles Mexico 2 Argentina 0

13.03.91 Buenos Aires Argentina 0 Mexico 0

20.06.93 Guayaquil Argentina 1 Mexico 1

04.07.93 Guayaquil Argentina 2 Mexico 1

10.02.99 Los Angeles Argentina 1 Mexico 0

09.06.99 Chicago Mexico 2 Argentina 2

20.12.00 Los Angeles Mexico 0 Argentina 2

04.02.03 Los Angeles Mexico 0 Argentina 1

10.07.04 Chiclayo Argentina 0 Mexico 1

09.03.05 Los Angeles Argentina 1 Mexico 1

26.06.05 Hanover Mexico 1 Argentina 1

(Argentina won 6-5 on penalties)

24.06.06 Leipzig Argentina 2 Mexico 1 AET

11.07.07 Puerto Ordaz Mexico 0 Argentina 3

04.06.08 San Diego Mexico 1 Argentina 4

Germany bury 1966 with 4-1 victory

Germany thrashed England 4-1 in Bloemfontein, South Africa on Sunday to reach the World Cup quarter-finals after England had a goal disallowed in the first half.

Germany took a 2-0 lead with goals in the first half through Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski before Matthew Upson reduced the deficit with a headed goal. The game was tighter at the start of the second half, before Germany finished it with two lethal counter-attacks that exposed England's aged, creaking defence.

The game's turning point came in the first half, when England should have gone in level after a Frank Lampard shot crossed the line coming down off the underside of the crossbar, only for the linesman to wave play on. 

The irony was not lost on fans who remembered the controversial goal that Geoff Hurst scored in the 1966 World Cup final in London, when England won 4-2. Unlike Lampard's strike on Sunday, video evidence has never satisfactorily made clear whether Hurst's shot crossed the line.

Referee Jorge Larrionda's misjudgement was all the more inexplicable because he was well-placed to see the incident. Yet, after looking across at his linesman, he waved play on.

England coach Fabio Capello said that the Lampard moment changed the game. "The Lampard incident was one of the most important in the match," said Capello.

"The referee made one of the biggest mistakes, but Germany are a great team, we were caught out on the counter-attack. This is football. Little things make all the difference".

The controversy over the incident will rumble on but England will also have to ask themselves some hard questions after what was, at times, a shambolic display.

Needing to attack and pushing up the field in the second half, England's defence was shown up by two brilliant counter-attacking strikes from Thomas Müller, which finished off a struggling England.

Three-times champions Germany, whose speed and guile frequently bewildered a statuesque England backline, will now meet either Argentina or Mexico, who were facing off later Sunday in Johannesburg.

Lukas Podolski, who scored Germany's second goal, said after the match, "I think we deserved to win. Now we have to make sure we don't sit back like we did after the game against Australia".

Germany's instrumental midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger said, "I'm really proud of the team. What we did over the 90 minutes was great. We were all pitching in at the back. Of course, we were lucky with Lampard's goal, but we played really well".

Criticizing his own team's performance after taking the lead, Schweinsteiger said, "We should never have let a two-goal lead slip like that".

Germany, a youthful side just coming to the boil under coach Joachim Löw, continue their record of having reached at least the last eight in every World Cup they have competed in since 1938.

"It was fun to watch," Löw said after the match. "We played with so much spark and vigour against a really experienced team".

England, having come to the tournament with high expectations under the experienced Capello, will head home with their reputations in shreds ahead of the customarily savage media post-mortem.

Panetta: Afghan war has 'serious problems,' but progress being made

Washington (CNN) -- CIA Director Leon Panetta said Sunday that the war in Afghanistan had "serious problems," but the U.S.-led mission was making progress.

"It's harder, it's slower than I think anyone anticipated," said Panetta, the nation's top intelligence officer, in a rare media interview with the ABC program "This Week".

He cited governance problems, drug trafficking and the Taliban insurgency -- all in a tribal society -- as the major challenges to the goal of "making sure al Qaeda never finds another safe haven from which to attack this country".

"Winning in Afghanistan is having a country that is stable enough to ensure that there is no safe haven for al Qaeda or for a militant Taliban that welcomes al Qaeda," Panetta said.

Noting increased violence against U.S. and NATO forces in Kandahar and Helmand provinces, Panetta said the "key to success or failure is whether the Afghans accept responsiblity" for securing and governing their country.

He downplayed the chances of a political reconciliation process succeeding in Afghanistan, saying the Taliban and its allies would only take part if they believed they faced certain defeat.

"We have seen no evidence that they are truly interested in reconciliation, where they would surrender their arms, where they would denounce al Qaeda, where they would really try to become part of that society," Panetta said.

Panetta estimated that no more than 50 to 100 al Qaeda terrorists were in Afghanistan -- mainly in Kandahar -- and he said that Osama bin Laden remains in "very deep hiding" in the tribal areas of Pakistan near the Afghanistan border.

"He obviously has tremendous security around him," Panetta said of the al Qaeda leader sought by the United States in connection with the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

With further efforts to disrupt al Qaeda operations and kill al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan, "we think ultimately we can flush out" bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, the group's second-in-command, Panetta said. However, he acknowledged it had been years since the U.S. had any good intelligence on the precise location of bin Laden.

Panetta also made clear that the threat from al Qaeda remains the nation's main concern, noting the group's use of people who lack any terrorism record -- such as the suspect in the botched bombing attempt of a U.S. airliner on Christmas day -- as a way to infiltrate U.S. safeguards. He also mentioned sleeper agents already in the country, and people who "self-radicalize" such as Maj. Nidal Hasan, the suspect in the Ft. Hood, Texas, shootings.

"Those kinds of threats represent I think the most serious threat to the United States right now," Panetta said.

On Iran, Panetta said the Tehran government continues to develop the capability to build a nuclear weapon, but that debate exists within the country on whether to actually do so.

"We think they have enough low-enriched uranium right now for two weapons," Panetta said. "They do have to enrich it, fully, in order to get there. And we would estimate that if they made that decision, it would probably take a year to get there, probably another year to develop the kind of weapon delivery system in order to make that viable".

Regarding another nuclear "rogue" state -- North Korea -- Panetta said the question of who will succeed leader Kim Jong Il is likely behind recent military acts such as the alleged sinking of a South Korean navy ship.

"I think that could have been part of it, in order to establish credibility for his son," Panetta said of a likely successor, adding: "His son is very young. His son is very untested. His son is loyal to his father and to North Korea, but his son does not have the kind of credibility with the military, because nobody really knows what he's going to be like".

However, Panetta said he doubted there would be further escalation, noting that "in the end, they always back away from the brink and I think they'll do that now".

Toddler dies after Clough road accident

A toddler has died after being struck by a vehicle in Clough, County Down.

The girl, who was 23 months old, died after she was hit by a 4x4 vehicle on the Blackstaff Road at about 1715 BST on Saturday.

A woman who was with her was treated in hospital for a suspected broken arm and whiplash injuries.

The driver of the vehicle was treated for shock and whiplash injuries after the road accident.

SDLP councillor Patsy Toman said the girl's death was a "terrible tragedy".

"The people here in Ballykinler and the Clough area are completely stunned," he said.

"I talked to a lot of them this morning and they are just wondering why and how this could have happened.

"Unfortunately there are an awful lot of tragedies on our roads, but when a young child loses their life it is harder to deal with than normal road accidents and my sympathy is with all concerned".

Police are continuing to investigate the circumstances surrounding the collision and have appealed for information.

Pakistan gets first delivery of F-16 fighter jets from U.S.

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) -- The first three of an order totaling 18 American F-16 fighter jets arrived Saturday in Pakistan in the latest effort between the two countries to fight terrorism, according to the Pakistani Air Force.

The jets were delivered to the Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad by Pakistani pilots who recently completed training in the United States to fly the aircraft, the PAF said in a statement.

The United States agreed in 2005 to sell the high-tech aircraft to Pakistan to upgrade its aging fleet. The newer model jet provides the Pakistani Air Force the ability to conduct night operations, the statement said.

U.S. and Pakistani officials have said the F-16s are used to fly missions over regions near Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, where the Taliban are operating and al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding.

The delivery of all 18 aircraft will be completed by the end of 2010, the PAF said.

U.S. Keeps Command of Military in Seoul

TORONTO — In its strongest move since the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Obama administration said Saturday that the United States would retain control of all military forces in the South during any conflict with North Korea, which has been widely blamed for the attack on the ship in March that killed 46 sailors.

The announcement was an apparent attempt to signal to the North, which has long wanted American forces off the peninsula, that the United States would remain firmly in control of military operations if war were to break out.

The decision is somewhat symbolic; the United States was not slated to give up wartime control of South Korean troops until 2012, and the new agreement extends the deadline to 2015. But the agreement allowed Washington and Seoul to take some action after months of struggling for ways to punish the North — and attempt to deter it from further violence — without provoking the country’s erratic leader, Kim Jong-il, to launch new attacks.

“There have to be consequences for such irresponsible behavior on the international stage,” Mr. Obama said Saturday during a press conference with President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea on the sidelines of an economic summit.

The difficulty of taking action against the North was underscored earlier in the day when the leaders of the world’s largest industrialized economies and Russia — the so-called Group of 8 — condemned the sinking of the South Korean vessel, the Cheonan, without explicitly blaming North Korea. An investigation by South Korea and investigators from several other countries firmly placed responsibility for the attack on North Korea, but neither China nor Russia has embraced that conclusion. China is not part of the G-8, but is a dominant force in the G-20.

The G-8 said in a communiqué, “We support the Republic of Korea in its efforts to seek accountability for the Cheonan incident”.

Mr. Obama also used the press conference to announce that President Hu Jintao of China had accepted an invitation to pay a state visit to the United States. The news came just days after China said it would allow greater flexibility in the value of its currency.

In addition, Mr. Obama vowed to seek Congressional ratification for a long-stalled free-trade agreement with South Korea — a possibly risky political move that could please businesses but upset unions and their allies in Congress.

In an apparent attempt to satisfy those groups, the administration said that in exchange for pushing the trade deal forward, Mr. Obama would ask the South to drop restrictions on auto and beef imports; the restrictions have been particularly unpopular with unions.

The decision to seek approval of the trade agreement was a victory for the White House economic team, and the chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, who supported it over the misgivings of Mr. Obama’s political advisers, who worry about angering allies in the months before the critical midterm elections.

Mr. Obama’s aides said they would try to resolve lingering issues by the time of the next G-20 leaders’ talks, to be held in Seoul, South Korea, in November, and present the deal to Congress shortly after the November elections.

President George W. Bush’s administration negotiated the agreement in June 2007, but Congress has not acted on it, nor has the Obama administration pressed the issue until now.

“President Obama’s leadership in breaking down barriers to commerce couldn’t come at a better time,” said Vikram S. Pandit, the chief executive of Citigroup, who leads a coalition of businesses that have urged ratification of the agreement. He said that the agreement “should lead to increased trade and investments, driving growth and job creation to fuel our economic recovery”.

Senator Max Baucus, the Montana Democrat chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said he would support ratification as long as “the unscientific barriers Korea has erected against American beef” were removed.

Representative Dave Camp of Michigan, the top Republican on the Ways and Means Committee, said he welcomed the decision. “I hope that this process will provide us an opportunity to address market access for autos and beef and increase the value of the trading relationship,” he said.