Prime minister says net immigration is falling, but UK Statistics Authority criticises him for misusing figures
Alan Travis, home affairs editor
Gordon Brown insisted today that immigration is not out of control by quoting new figures demonstrating that net migration to Britain has fallen since 2007 and promising further substantial cuts.
He claimed that new overseas student rules and a clampdown on "bogus" colleges will mean 40,000 fewer students coming to Britain in 2010-11 and promised to close the door on non-European skilled care workers and chefs being recruited by 2014.
But hours after he spoke, he was criticised by the UK Statistics Authority for misusing immigration figures during a Downing Street podcast last week.
The prime minister was attempting to define the debate on immigration in the coming election by saying it was time for mainstream politicians to present a "united front" against those who did not value a diverse Britain and wanted to end immigration just because they did not like immigrants.
"No mainstream party wants to bring an end to immigration altogether – the debate is over how to control it, about what level it should be and how we achieve that," said Brown, who went out of his way to empathise with the anxieties raised by the rapid pace of change in some communities because of immigration.
"I know how people worry that immigration might be changing their neighbourhoods. They would worry if immigration was putting pressure on schools, hospitals and housing; and they question whether immigration might undermine their wages or might harm the job prospects of their children".
He said it was important that mainstream politicians talked about these issues – "because if we don't, people will listen to whoever does". But he warned against politicians engaging in "dog-whistle politics" on immigration by not matching what they say in national speeches with what is said on the doorstep.
He also dispelled speculation that Labour might embrace Tory policy by backing a limit on immigration; instead he said David Cameron's plan for an annual quota would be arbitrary, unworkable and bad for Britain.
Brown told his audience in Shoreditch, east London, that Britain had fallen to 13th in the European league table for asylum claims and that total inward migration had also fallen.
He quoted National Statistics figures showing that long-term net inward migration – the numbers coming each year to live in the UK minus the numbers leaving to live abroad – had fallen from 233,000 in 2007 to 163,000 in 2008.
He said the comparable 2009 figures had not yet been published but "provisional figures" from the international passenger survey show that the downward trend continued in the 12 months to June 2009 with a further fall to 147,000.
"There is only one conclusion from all the published data that's available and it is this: over this period net inward migration has fallen," said Brown.
"This doesn't mean immigration isn't an issue. It is. That's why I am talking about it today. But we should not allow people to scaremonger with unsubstantiated claims about rising net inward migration today".
It is, however, a conclusion that the Conservatives already dispute. They wrote to the UK statistics watchdog to complain after Brown first used these figures last Friday in a Downing Street podcast.
Sir Michael Scholar, who chairs the UK Statistics Authority, published his reply yesterday. He said Brown had used incomparable data when he claimed that the trend of long-term immigration was downwards. Brown claimed net inward migration had fallen from 237,000 in 2007 to 163,000 in 2008 and 147,000 last year.
But Sir Michael said the correct figure for 2007 was 233,000. More seriously, he said the 147,000 figure used by Brown was wrong because it was taken from a different data set which has not yet been adjusted.
Sir Michael wrote: "The Statistics Authority hopes that, in the political debate over the coming weeks, all parties will be careful in their use of statistics, to protect the integrity of official statistics".
In his speech, Brown went on to detail how he would further reduce immigration to Britain. He announced there was no question of lifting the ban on unskilled immigrants coming to work from outside Europe, which has been in place since Poland joined the European Union.
But he announced that the two largest shortage occupations under which skilled workers could come in under the points-based system – care workers and skilled chefs – would be taken off the shortage list in 2012 and 2014 respectively. He said that by then sufficient local people would be trained to do the jobs.
However, Labour's long-promised introduction of a points-based system for citizenship is to be further delayed. Brown said that the reform, which will mean that gaining a British passport will be linked to behaviour and not just time spent in the country, will not come in before July 2011.
The Guardian
