By Yinka Ibukun
LAGOS (Reuters) - Years of military rule and memories of rigged voting have left many Nigerians unimpressed with democracy as presidential elections approach.
Even with official promises of credible polls early next year, the fear is that many Nigerians are so tired of disappointment that they won't bother voting.
Chioma Imuka, 37, sells plants by the roadside in Lagos. She listens to the local radio news religiously but she says she might as well be following the twists of a soap opera.
Since 1999, after a long period of military rule, Nigerians have had a democratic government but Imuka's expectations are minimal: "They should just leave me to do my business and make some money to eat. Whether Yar'Adua is dead or alive, nobody knows. They don't tell us anything," she said, "What can we do?"
Since he went to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment in November, little has been heard from President Musa Yar'Adua.
And since his secretive homecoming in February, his vice president Goodluck Jonathan, who is now acting president, has neither seen nor spoken to him. Jonathan is cementing his hold on power in the oil-producing nation, but uncertainty remains.
Muibi Azeez is a tailor and father of two. At age 29, he has voted once, at a state election. According to him, "God does everything, not the president".
Sitting behind a black Singer pedal machine decorated with ornate scrolling, Azeez is sewing himself a shirt to attend his friend's mother's funeral. Business is slow.
There is limited opportunity for Nigerians to vent their unhappiness at high unemployment and rising rents.
Imuka, a single mother with a daughter in university, says she is far too busy trying to make money and cynical about voting to exercise her civic duties.
"Vote! Why would I vote? Our leaders are selected not elected. They knew Yar'Adua was sick when they put him there".
Yar'Adua came to power in 2007 from relative obscurity through the influence of then president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
That election was the first time a civilian leader had handed over to another civilian in Africa's most populous nation but the vote was deeply flawed.
Imuka is a fan of Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Fashola, not because of his far-reaching agenda but rather because he's allowed her to keep operating in a prime location and even boosted her business opportunities by encouraging roadside business owners to improve their areas by planting flowers.
"Fashola wants to beautify the State. He wants people to plant flowers everywhere. Even at taxi parks, drivers have to plant flowers," she said.
RICH ELITE
For most Nigerians, government is incidental to their daily lives and only rarely, such as with the Lagos greening initiative, do the two interact. Politics is a policy-light preserve of a rich elite that has little to do with the day-to-day grind.
Most Nigerians do not pay taxes in a formal manner and unless something stands directly in the way of their livelihood, it is unlikely that Azeez or Imuka will take part in a demonstration or make any other demands of their government.
Instead, Imuka talks back at the radio under the shade of a palm tree. She complains with her friends about the secrecy surrounding Yar'Adua's health, but this is where her protest starts, and ends.
"That feeling you have when somebody tries to short-change you by collecting your money without fulfilling his obligations; you need that type of feeling for easy mobilization," said Olusegun Sotola, from the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis.
"But the Nigerian state gets its revenue from rent and royalty paid on natural resources (oil). I am sure less than five percent of Nigerians pay direct tax to government".
That makes many of about 140 million Nigerians a tough crowd to mobilise for political activists who wish people would do more to make their vote count.
New activist groups have emerged since Yar'Adua's hospitalisation. Among them is the Save Nigeria Group which organised two marches while Yar'Adua was in Saudi Arabia; one in Abuja which drew about 3,000 people, another in Lagos attracted some 6,000 of the city's estimated 15 million residents.
Yinka Odumakin, spokeswoman for the Save Nigeria Group, said: "We want to get to a point where we have rallies of 100,000 or even 200,000 people but given that there has been some kind of lethargy, 6,000 is not bad".
"Our goal is to take politics to the streets," said Odumakin whose group has spent thousands of dollars placing full-page ads in national newspapers.
Acting President Jonathan acknowledged the problem of election rigging when he made electoral reform one of his top three policy priorities.
Pressure has been mounting for the sacking of Maurice Iwu, head of the electoral commission that validated Yar'Adua's controversial election.
Jonathan has less than a year to deliver on his promise to Nigerians and to the international community of credible polls.
And even if Jonathan can make good on his promise, the average voter has become cynical about whether democracy in Nigeria can yield the dividends it promises.
Alaba Sanusi, 44, is a trader in Lagos. When asked to join a political demonstration just minutes away from his shop, his response was typical of many Nigerians.
"Na democracy man go chop?" he says in Pidgin English. "Can you eat democracy?"
Reuters Africa
