By Manny Mogato and Rosemarie Francisco
MANILA (Reuters) - Presidential frontrunner Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino was poised for a decisive victory in elections in the Philippines on Monday despite technical problems which caused long delays but did not derail the polls as feared.
Unofficial tallies of 38 percent of votes cast showed Aquino well in front with 40.1 percent, ahead of former President Joseph Estrada in second place with 25.8 percent, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said. That was in line with opinion polls which gave Aquino a commanding 20-point lead.
Problems with new ballot machines forced many Filipinos to wait for hours to vote -- including Aquino himself who faced a four-hour delay. "It lacked prior testing so there were a lot of problems," he said after finally casting his ballot.
But while some Filipinos eventually gave up without voting, Comelec estimated turnout at 75 percent -- 10 points lower than forecast but still easily high enough to dispel concerns the polls would lack credibility.
A broadly successful ballot -- despite technical problems, shootings and bombings in some remote areas and allegations of vote buying -- would be a relief for domestic financial markets that had feared a failed vote above all other outcomes.
That, along with a bounce in global markets on the rescue package for the Euro zone, was likely to lower the risk premium priced into Philippine assets when local markets reopen on Tuesday, with attention turning to the likely new president and their plan to bring a worrying fiscal deficit under control.
"If all goes smoothly and the president is proclaimed on time, I think the market will react positively, said Barclays Capital economist Prakriti Sofat in Singapore.
"However market participants will be keen to hear the strategy of the next government to address fiscal concerns".
The election commission's latest tally, as of 9:45 p.m. (1345 GMT) put Senator Manuel Villar in third place with 14 percent of votes cast and Gilberto Teodoro, candidate of the outgoing administration, fourth with almost 11 percent.
In a country where family ties play a key role in politics, Aquino owes much of his popularity to his parents: his father was an opposition leader assassinated during the rule of Ferdinand Marcos, and his mother Cory took up the mantle and won office during the People Power revolution that drove Marcos from office.
VOTING SYSTEM PASSES TEST -- JUST
The use of a new and untested automated voting system, designed to make electoral fraud more difficult, posed a major risk for the polls. Concerns rose last week following the recall of more than 76,000 memory chips after a fault was found.
With temperatures climbing above 36 degrees Celsius (97 Fahrenheit) in crowded polling stations, officials nervously fanned some ballot machines to try to prevent them overheating.
Long queues formed outside many polling stations, and the confusion prompted election commission Comelec to extend voting by an hour. Problems were also reported with some voter lists.
But in a country where some degree of violence and chaos is regarded as normal during elections, officials said the problems were not nearly severe enough to undermine the polls.
Political and security analyst Ian Bryson of Control Risks said that while the elections had avoided any catastrophic problems, there was still the risk of unrest in coming days.
"Disaffection with the voting process remains the most likely trigger for social unrest in the days ahead," he said.
Comelec said if a machine malfunctioned and there was no back-up, people could still complete their voting paper, which would be stored and scanned later by staff at election booths.
"It's not as widespread as it's made to appear by some people and what's important is that these are being replaced," Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said of the faulty machines.
The military reported 37 incidents of election day violence, with at least nine dead and 12 wounded. That tally is low by the standards of past Philippine elections.
Violence included a gunfight in Maguindanao on the restive southern island of Mindanao, where 57 people died last November in an election-related massacre.
Tackling corruption and reducing poverty were key themes of the election campaign, but candidates were vague on details.
Among the challenges for the new president will be trying to reinvigorate an economy that has fallen behind its Southeast Asian peers, both in terms of growth potential and as an investment destination. Markets also want to see the next president quickly tackle the country's parlous fiscal position.
"I voted for Noynoy," said Liza Pascual, a 45-year-old clerk who queued through the morning to vote in Manila. "Let's see if he can really fulfill his promise to bring change to the Philippines, we are relying on his promises,"
Additional reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr; Writing by John Mair and Andrew Marshall; editing by Sanjeev Miglani
Reuters Canada
