terça-feira, 11 de maio de 2010

Cameron on way to Palace to meet Queen to form first Tory government in 13 years



David Cameron was tonight on his way to Buckingham Palace to become the first Tory Prime Minister in 13 years after Gordon Brown finally resigned.

The Tory leader will be invited to form a new government after talks between the Tories and the Lib Dems finally concluded this evening.

Shadow foreign secretary William Hague tonight said he was preparing to take recommendations to the wider Tory party.

Mr Hague said: 'We now have some recommendations to take back to David Cameron and our parliamentary colleagues'.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg's chief of staff Danny Alexander said that the talks had taken place in a 'good atmosphere'.

Mr Alexander added: 'We are returning to report back to Nick Clegg and our parliamentary party'.

But Mr Cameron still has to convince his Tory frontbenchers that they will have to work alongside at least four Lib Dem ministers as part of any deal.

Although Mr Cameron has moved the party towards the centre to help dispel its 'nasty party' image, the backbenchers are more right wing and Eurosceptic than ever before.

Right wingers may find it hard to support many Lib Dem inspired proposals in the House of Commons.

If this becomes a major problem, and Mr Clegg does not feel he has gained enough from the deal, the coalition could fall apart - forcing Mr Cameron to limp on with a minority government, or call a fresh election.

By this time, Labour will have elected a new leader more likely than Gordon Brown to lead his party to victory.

A Tory-Lib Dem government will take office with a seemingly healthy majority of 38 - but could still be scuppered if David Cameron tries to get contentious issues through the Commons.

Controversial measures could be held to ransom by those on the left of the Lib Dem party, and by the dozens of backbench Tories who veer to the right - making stable government difficult to achieve.

The strength of the right is demonstrated by the fact that Mr Cameron is expected to announce that three prominent right wingers will get seats round the Cabinet table, alongside Lib Dems.

But the Tory leader may be forced to constantly placate those on the right over his months and years of power - making it all the more difficult him to reach policy compomises with Mr Clegg.

The parliamentary arithmetic works like this. Following the election, the Tories came out with 306 seats - 20 short of an overall majority.


With the Lib Dems' 57 seats, this adds up to a majority of 38. If the Democratic Unionists also come on board - a distinct possibility - this would become a majority of 46.

In reality, the majority will be slightly higher - because Sinn Fein's five MPs do not sit at Westminster, and the Speaker John Bercow does not vote.

But a look back at recent history underscores the pitfalls of slim majorities - even when only one party is in power. The problems will only be amplified in a coalition.

The Cameron-Clegg tally is higher than the 21-seat majority won by John Major in 1992. Although this unexpected victory was greeted by the Tories as a startling coup at the time, it soon became apparent it was a poisoned chalice.

By-elections eventually whittled down the majority, and nine backbenchers actually resigned the Tory whip over Europe. By the end of his time in office, Mr Major was leading a minority government - albeit propped up by the Ulster Unionists.

In 2005, Tony Blair achieved a 66-seat majority - higher than Cameron and Clegg can boast. It was not an easy ride.

Backbench rebels caused huge problems after Gordon Brown took over two years later. He was forced to water down proposals to detail terrorist suspects without trial, and make concessions on his 10p tax rate policy.

So if a one-party government faced problems with a majority of 66, a two-party government consisting of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems can expect even more with a majority barely half that size.

One threat comes from the Liberal Democratic Party itself which is, in effect, a coalition. It was only formed in 1988 from a merger of the old Liberal Party and the SDP, centrists who defected from Labour seven years earlier.

Many of the old SDP types - and many Liberals - may find it hard to swallow some of the Conservative laws they may be asked to support.

Mr Clegg reopened talks with the Conservatives this afternoon amid speculation that a Lib-Con deal was imminent. 

Labour’s public turmoil had left Mr Clegg exposed and under massive pressure to make up his mind one way or the other. He was likened to a 'harlot' by former home secretary David Blunkett and accused of “Robert Mugabe politics” by former Tory foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind.

Although Mr Cameron ordered his team not to join in the name-calling, the Conservative leader upped the pressure on Mr Clegg by insisting it was 'decision time'. 

Leaving home this morning, he said: 'It’s now, I believe, decision time — decision time for the Liberal Democrats. And I hope they make the right decision to give this country the strong, stable government that it badly needs and it badly needs quickly'.

Daily Mail