By JOHN MAIR | REUTERS
MANILA: Benigno Aquino was cruising to victory in the Philippine presidential election on Tuesday, but now needs to prove he has the strength to push his reform agenda, fight corruption and cut a large budget deficit.
The country's first automated election ran far better than many had expected - particularly after a technical problem last week - and the quick and clear result allowed investors to bypass fears of prolonged political instability.
The stock market gained 3.85 percent and the peso rose more than 1 percent as Aquino's strong lead added to the boost from the euro zone rescue package that lifted global markets and investor sentiment this week.
"A strong mandate will bring policy continuity which is what people want to see. The last thing they want to see is always uncertainty as we've seen in Britain," said Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB Research in Singapore.
"The popular support hopefully will translate into confidence in the economy."
The Commission on Elections said that Aquino, the only son of democracy icon Cory Aquino, had 40.2 percent of votes with 78.55 percent counted by early Tuesday. Former president Joseph Estrada was in second place with 25.5 percent of votes.
"When I saw the support from the people from Ilocos Norte all the way to Zamboanga on the other end, it made me realize that people must have awakened and that it's their will that will prevail," Aquino told reporters in his hometown of Tarlac.
Aquino had 12.3 million votes to Estrada's 7.8 million, with 30.4 million votes counted. Comelec has said there was a turnout of about 75 percent of 50.7 million registered voters, which meant around 7.6 million votes were still to be counted.
"A clear-cut triumph would remove under-currents of political legitimacy that accompanied the incumbent Arroyo administration and hamstrung its policy agenda," said Tom Byrne, sovereign regional credit officer for Asia at Moody's Investor Services.
Parents' legacy
There are questions over whether the 50-year-old Aquino, who has had a lacklustre career as a lawmaker, can deliver his reform and anti-corruption promises and tame a budget deficit expected to top 300 billion pesos ($6.6 billion) this year.
"Tackling the deficit would be the number one priority for the next government," said Paul Joseph Garcia, chief investment officer of ING Investment Management Philippines.
"We're not in a Greece-type level of fiscal crisis, but definitely the fiscal deficit is a priority for the next administration. They may have to increase taxes, that will of course need a lot of political will".
The source of Aquino's popularity was largely his parents' legacy, rather than his own achievements, with his anti-corruption platform benefitting from the goodwill generated by the family name and its reputation for propriety.
"I will not only not steal, but I will run after thieves. We lead by example," Aquino said on Tuesday.
His father, Benigno, was an opposition leader assassinated in 1983 during the reign of Ferdinand Marcos, and his mother, Corazon, took up the mantle and won office during the People Power revolution that drove Marcos from power. Her death last August powered an emotion-driven push for her son, popularly known as "Noynoy", to run.
"Aquino will have to prove that his short political resume will not prevent him from effective policy-making, as he tries to manage the inevitable competing interests," Roberto Herrera-Lim, Asia director for the Eurasia Group, said in a report.
One such party could be the military, which has exerted a strong influence since the fall of Marcos, although its role this election was largely limited to providing security in what has been considered one of the country's least-violent polls.
Cory Aquino faced a number of coup attempts when president, but Maj. Gen. Gaudencio Pangilinan, head of the military's operations division, said her son would find a changed military.
"The armed forces that President Aquino, the mother, inherited was kind of problematic," he told ANC television.
"The organization now has matured... and our direction, our professionalism is highest".
Aquino will also have to contend with the family of the late dictator - Marcos's widow, Imelda, won a seat in Congress, daughter Imee won a local governor's position and son Ferdinand Jr was on track to be elected one of 12 senators - as well as outgoing president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
Arroyo, who was ineligible to run for president again, won a seat in Congress in the election. Analysts and opponents think she wants to become Speaker of the House, from where she could push for the introduction of a parliamentary system to create the role of prime minister and reduce the power of the president.
While unpopular with the electorate, she has a strong political base that helped keep her in power for nearly a decade despite accusations of electoral fraud, corruption and rights abuses - which Aquino has said his government will investigate.
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