China is set to overtake the United States as the world's biggest manufacturer next year at the earliest, ending the latter's more-than-a-century reign in the field, according to an economic report.
Some analysts voiced caution Tuesday, saying that without securing core competitiveness through innovation and industry upgrades, goods producers should not celebrate such a title.
The US-based consultancy IHS Global Insight said in a report Monday that China's manufacturing sector will reach the "real inflation-adjusted" size of that of the US "sometime around 2013- 2014," though the US economy as a whole is now three times bigger than China's.
China is very likely to surpass the US in manufacturing in 2011, and it could be a "close call" this year, Mark Kilion, managing director of IHS, was quoted by CNN as saying. By then, China will supply one fifth of the goods consumed worldwide.
The manufacturing sector in China was close to bridging the gap with that of the US last year, with the value of goods produced by Chinese factories reaching $1.6 trillion, while those of the US' were valued at $1.72 trillion.
According to IHS, China's manufacturing sector is estimated to have grown by 14 percent in "real" inflation-adjusted terms from 2007 to 2009, while the US witnessed a decline of 8.2 percent over that period.
