SEOUL — The Invincible Spirit air and naval exercise that begins Sunday off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula will be a clear show of U.S. and South Korean force: the USS George Washington, F-22 Raptor fighter jets, 20 ships and submarines, 200 aircraft and 8,000 servicemembers.
But when the smoke clears, will the four-day exercise meant for the rogue nation of North Korea have long-lasting impact on relations in the Pacific region, or will it be quickly forgotten like a Fourth of July fireworks display?
That depends on whom you ask.
The U.S. and South Korea are either about to engage in a self-indulgent power trip that can only further sour relations with North Korea and China, or the demonstration of military resolve will send an important message to the two communist countries.
The exercise follows the March sinking of the South Korean patrol ship Cheonan, which an international team of investigators led by South Korea blamed on a North Korean submarine torpedo. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and South Korean Minister of National Defense Kim Tae-young issued a joint statement when the exercise was announced: “These defensive, combined exercises are designed to send a clear message to North Korea that its aggressive behavior must stop, and that we are committed to together enhancing our combined defensive capabilities”.
Several experts agree.
Denny Roy, a specialist on Asia Pacific security issues at the East-West Center in Hawaii, said the exercise “is not lacking in lasting, practical implications,” not the least of which will be “important practice and training” for the U.S. and South Korea as allies.
“I don’t know if the exercise itself will be crucial to what North Korea does next,” he said, but together with other economic and symbolic measures the U.S. and South Korea have taken, “it ought to make it clear [to North Korea that it] did not benefit from the sinking of the Cheonan”.
Roy believes the exercise will serve an important role in showing that the U.S. will not take direction from China, especially given the perception — real or imagined — that the U.S. has gone too far in accommodating China by staging the upcoming exercise east of the peninsula.
Others strongly disagree with the show of force.
“These exercises are exactly the wrong way to deal with North Korea” and another example of how “we continue to stick our finger in [China’s] eye,” said Selig Harrison, director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C., and author of five books on Asian affairs and U.S. relations, including “Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement”.
Through the exercise, he said, “I hope we get this bravado out of our system”.
The exercise is the latest in a string of measures the U.S. and South Korea have taken against North Korea for its alleged role in the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, which left 46 South Korean crewmen dead.
While the South Korean-led team of investigators determined that a North Korean submarine sank the Cheonan in the Yellow Sea — near the disputed maritime border between the two Koreas — North Korea has denied any responsibility.
Invincible Spirit was put on hold for several weeks while the U.S. and South Korea waited for the United Nations Security Council to act on the Cheonan incident. The council issued a statement earlier this month expressing “deep concern” about the findings of the Cheonan investigation, but stopped short of directly blaming North Korea.
Stars and Stripes
